Confessions of an Autowala

A 20 minute ride from Vikhroli Station to Hiranandani has reinforced my perspective against the actions of the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena.

Upon settling down in his vehicle, 'R' tried to make small talk with me. With 20 minutes to spare, I preferred to talk to a stranger than reading Overload by Arthur Hailey. The following conversation has been translated to English for the ease of typing.

R: Where do you want to go?
Me: Hiranandani.
R: Come.
(After 2 mintues)
R: Ask your minister to improve these roads. Do you think you'll be in time for office? Its going to take ages to get out of here.
Me: What do you think I can do? Its ok, I'm used to this now.
R: No, what I meant was that the Prime Minister will only listen to you people. He's a sardar too. Manmohan Singh acha aadmi hai. After all, everyone worries about their own people, don't they? Now, when Raj Thakeray beats up people like us, what do we do? We're used to this too, you know.
Me: Were there any incidents of beating up someone here?
R: No, not really, but they did beat up my friend.
Me: Who did you vote for?
R: I voted for the Congress. Who else do you think I could possibly vote for? There's no one else.
Me: Where are you from?
R: I'm from Bihar.
Me: Nitish Kumar has done a good job there, hasn't he? He steamrolled over his opponents in the elections this time.
R: Yeah, he's done really well. The roads are better, water is available and the farmers are taken care of. He HAD to win.
Me: Are you planning to go back?
R: No, not at all. I will continue to stay here.


Try reading the first paragraph of the article titled 2008 attacks on North Indians in Maharashtra on Wikipedia. It has been morphed into the 2008 attacks on Maharashtrians by North Indians. An excerpt from the article -

"Some 2000 men mostly from UP and Bihar attacked Marathi people from Dadar area which resulted in bloody reaction by MNS workers. It was very organized attack supposed to be supported by Lalu Yadav (formar CM of Bihar) and Mulayam singh Yadav (formar CM of UP.).Later all the national media accused Raj Thakare for these attacks which were planned in UP/Bihar. One Marathi person was killed in the attacks and not a single North indian person died."

Edit: The Wiki-article has now been edited. Only the 1st paragraph of the original article was flawed, which has now been deleted. The map of India on the right side of the article still has the title 2008 attacks on Maharashtrians by North Indians.


A fascinating read on the website of the MNS is titled Understand Misunderstandings. An excerpt -

Q: You say you admire Gandhi, who preached non-violence. Then why do your followers heed to violence?

A: Mahatma Gandhi’s opponents were intellectual, intelligent and educated British individuals who were a part of a civilised society. His method is ineffective when you’re pitted against uncivilised individuals who don’t understand polite requests. What would happen if you tried to teach a six year old about the Dnyaneshwari? Will it work? No.
You need to communicate with your opponent in a language they understand and a language they can comprehend.

Lets put in some numbers here. The constituents of Mumbai's exploding population of 17 million are as follows -
Marathi Speaking (incl Dalits): 42%
Hindi Speaking North Indians : 21%
Gujarati Speaking : 18%
Muslims : 17%
The Christians, Parsis, Tamilians, Kannadigas, Sikhs, Sindhis and Jewish, also known as Bene Israelis) make up the rest of the city's people.
(Reference: India Proposes)

Let us not forget that the support to the MNS is massive. Even though it lost all the seats it contested for, the MNS is now being regarded as a potent force, primarily due to the massive Marathi population in Mumbai. But antagonizing the rest of the population in Mumbai for the sake of 42% of the votes is foolhardy.

I expect you to come up with a judgement yourself.

The Next?

Change is constant. It is everywhere, on the television, on the radio, on the billboards and on the Internet. We've seen the trends come and go. None stay. And none will ever. Perhaps that is precisely the reason why companies today are pumping in millions into research and development and are forced to innovate, just to stay in.

In the beginning, it was the Google wave. What Larry Page and Sergey Brin created was not just another search engine, supposedly better than the previous counterparts like Yahoo and Alta Vista, it was a craze. Little did they know that just 8 years down the line, the verb "google", would be added to the Merriam Webster Collegiate Dictionary and the Oxford English Dictionary. And now, its seemingly indomitable position is threatened by Wolfram Alpha.

Do you remember when you last visited your Orkut Profile? Or when you last checked your, what was it called, scrapbook? Oh yes, we were hooked on to it, weren't we? It actually began way back in 2004 with Hi5. Orkut ruled the roost the next year onward. Along the way, I'm sure all of us must have ignored/deleted requests to join Friendster, Yaari, Jhoos and the likes. And then came along the mighty Facebook. Yes, it was the thing! Too bad India didn't catch the Myspace bug.

And, finally, Twitter-The MicroBlog. Designed, not to keep in touch with the people you know, but to get to know people you don't, Twitter is the fastest growing online community in the world today. Infact, just to put in some numbers, Nielsen.com ranked Twitter as the fastest-growing site in the Member Communities category for February 2009 with a growth of 1382%, whereas Facebook had a growth of only 228%. But, on the flip side, Nielsen Online stated that Twitter has a 40% retention rate of users, who tend to drop the service after a month, which meant that the site could potentially reach only about 10% of Internet users. And like any other popular website, it has the problem of trolls.

So what can we expect in the future?

A thread of commonality among these trends in Human Involvement. People want to know things, people want information. Whether this information is about themselves, their friends, the latest Nokia phones, or Ashton Kutcher. Greed for information fuels these websites. And these sites seem to be making a pretty neat profit too.(Well, except for Twitter, though. These chaps haven't figured out a way to make money yet) Also, simplicity is the key. A simple, understandable and a non-frilly interface goes a long way*. But yes, like I said before, none will last. There will be alternatives, better, for sure. Blogging will be so-yesterday too.


Waiting for the next fad!


*: And if you thought that Facebook was complicated, then, well, figure a way to switch off your computer too. Or is that complicated to do too?

Yeh Dil Maange More? - Part 2

Result #1
In the last post, we saw that extrapolating just the averages of each batsman according to the rules we laid down earlier shows that the average of the total score of a team rises by 3.55% only.

Let us now continue from where we left off earlier.

We shall now proceed in a different direction - considering Strike Rates of the newly added batsmen.The reason why we consider strike rates is because it reflects the ease and the inclination to hit shots and thereby, score runs.

Here are the Average Strike Rates of the 11 batsmen available on Cricinfo.com


Old Strike Rates

Player 1: 68.85
Player 2: 69.31
Player 3: 69.60
Player 4: 72.93
Player 5: 74.15
Player 6: 74.94
Player 7: 74.60
Player 8: 73.93
Player 9: 69.56
Player 10: 63.77
Player 11: 50.32

Since we are assuming that it is still a 50-over a side game, the number of balls for each side would be the same. The probability of a team getting all-out would be significantly lower and a competition for the same number of balls would arise. Therefore, there would be more players vying for the same number of balls and therefore, individual strike rates would rise. The new strike rates would follow the previous pattern, except that now, there are 15 players instead of the previous 11. And yes, the strike rates would spike towards Player 7 now, instead of Player 6.

Remember, more the number of players in a team, more the number of lesser quality players playing the game.


New Strike Rates

Player 1: 73.85
Player 2: 74.31
Player 3: 75.60
Player 4: 78.93
Player 5: 81.15
Player 6: 82.84
Player 7: 83.60
Player 8: 81.93
Player 9: 79.56
Player 10: 77.56
Player 11: 75.56
Player 12: 73.56
Player 13: 70.56
Player 14: 63.77
Player 15: 50.32

All right. Now, how do we convert strike rates into runs? By multiplying it with the Average Number of Balls faced by each batsman. Again, we extrapolate the data available for 15 players using a similar curve for the same function.

Data and Calculation for the Old Format












Data and Calculation for the New Format

















Therefore, the new team average turns out to be 232.62.

Result #2

The Average Score of a Team with 15 players rises by 8.944% when the Individual Strike Rates of the Batsmen are considered.

Yeh Dil Maange More? - Part 1

A few nights ago, Yusuf Pathan was making his way through the Kolkata Knight Riders' inadequate bowling attack. On one particular delivery, he struck the ball so hard, that it rose high for a few seconds before landing in a no-man's land area.

At this, my mother exclaimed "Had there been a fielder standing right there, he would have been out!"

This kick-started a chain of thoughts. What if there were 15 players in a team? Would the average score of a team playing a Test, an ODI or a T20 be higher or lower? What if there were 5 players?

So,I set about solving this problem and thanks to the extensive data available at http://www.cricinfo.com, I have been able to dig out some much needed information. Here's an attempt.(I would really want to develop this exercise and would need your comments on improving this further.)

Let us take a few assumptions before proceeding any further.
1) I am only considering a One-Day International only, with 50 overs a side.
2) For the ease of data collection, I have included data from all countries playing ODIs (recognized by the ICC)-Countries from Australia to UAE.
3) Data from all past matches have been included, including the ODIs that were abandoned or those which produced no results.
4) For the purpose of solving this problem, I shall proceed assuming that there are more than 11 players in a team.


Facts governing the course of scoring in the match

1) More the number of players, more the number of lesser quality batsmen and bowlers.
2) 6's will not be affected, 4's and other runs will be affected.
3) Batsmen coming in the end are generally coming in towards the end of the team's innings, so they hit hard and get out. This assumption stays true for the newly added batsmen too.


Batting Averages for each player against any opposition:

Player 1: 32.34
Player 2: 31.90
Player 3: 32.81
Player 4: 34.70
Player 5: 30.50
Player 6: 26.36
Player 7: 21.07
Player 8: 16.63
Player 9: 13.15
Player 10: 10.51
Player 11: 07.54


On the curve for the averages itself, I have superimposed a 6th degree function which approximates the curve the best. The function is-
y = 0.0006x6 - 0.0264x5 + 0.4687x4 - 3.9523x3 + 15.62x2 - 26.261x + 46.544
With the R2 (Remember statistics?) value as-
R2 = 0.9981

The significance of the value of R2 is such that the closer the value of R2 is to 1, the better fit the curve is to the original data.

I have extended the same curve using the values of the averages from batsmen from position 8-11 to extrapolate these values for the new hypothetical players using a quadratic function. I used a quadratic function because it seemed to fit the curve the best possible way and gave non-negative values for the averages for the hypothetical players.



The averages for the new hypothetical players has been found to be-


Player 8: 16.63
Player 9: 13.15
Player 10: 10.51
Player 11: 07.54
Player 12: 04.57
Player 13: 02.4212
Player 14: 01.915
Player 15: 00.2376

The new function used is -

y = 0.2063x2 - 4.2051x + 20.801
And the new R2 value is-
R2 = 0.9948

Result #1
Therefore, extrapolating just the averages of each batsman according to the rules we laid down shows that the Average of the Total Score of a Team of 15 rises by 3.55% only.


But merely just adding the averages for the 15 players will not give us our answer. We need to consider strike rates and run rates too.

Watch this space...

Theory or Practice?

You can either believe in God or in Probability.

Take your pick.

Slow Death

I take a train to work everyday. In fact, two. And that's one-side. I need to negotiate one of the most filthiest stations in all of Suburban Mumbai for that, and believe me, I would like to get done with it quickly. Besides, I'm almost always late for work.

So when I'm stuck walking behind a silly lady who takes ages to crawl a few steps, or walk a few feet, I feel like punching her from behind her head. And its not just the women. So, instead of just walking slightly faster, these smart-alecs cross the tracks instead. Wonderful.

So I'm being mean. Sue me. But these are perfectly healthy men and women who could be role models for the DRDO. Its as if they aren't using their legs at all, they're just thinking they're walking fast. And they never give way to others at all. And when you finally overtake them, believe me, it gives yourself a huge sense of achievement. Are they scared that their feet might pop off from their sockets in the ankles if they use them too much?

What do you tell such people? Do you tell them that their feet might decay of gangrene due to excessive inactivity ?

The best part is that you will find the same people sweating it out at the gym at 6 in the evening.

Arbitrary Coolness?

Ever wondered what goes on in the back of someone's head when they call themselves "Random". "Hey luk at moi, m random, im 2 random fr words", or, “I’m so random, I cud do nethng rt now.”

 

Huh? What does that mean? Does that mean you're whimsical? Does that mean you can't think coherently for more than a minute? Does your head hurt when you do that?

 

Wikipedia casually defines randomness as 'a lack of order, purpose or cause'. Ok, that helped. It’s probably being 'randomly cool' about it. (Was that an oxymoron?)

 

Why is it that people think their Facebook photo albums will get more thumbs-ups, if it is titled "Random" or "Random pics"? Even when all of those photos are in a bar, restaurant or even a classroom, when it is pretty clear, there’s nothing random about them. It’s on the T-shirts too, you know. I guess it has now joined the league of the Me-Too T-shirts which proudly display ‘what education did to them’ or how ‘contagious their attitude is’. Robert Brown (of the Brownian Motion fame) would be so proud.

 

So what’s the mystery behind this word? Why is it that people think they could garner a higher acceptance among their peers, if they could call themselves or their actions as ‘Random’? If everyone is so random, we wouldn’t be random anymore. (OK, now my head hurts). Call someone random and you see a wonderful 32-bit smile on his/her face. (OK, that didn’t go as I had planned.)

 

Please refrain from calling me or this post as random. You shall be missing random teeth the next morning.

By the way, the picture on the right was displayed on the first results page of Google Image search when I searched for the word ......