In the last post, we saw that extrapolating just the averages of each batsman according to the rules we laid down earlier shows that the average of the total score of a team rises by 3.55% only.
Let us now continue from where we left off earlier.
We shall now proceed in a different direction - considering Strike Rates of the newly added batsmen.The reason why we consider strike rates is because it reflects the ease and the inclination to hit shots and thereby, score runs.
Here are the Average Strike Rates of the 11 batsmen available on Cricinfo.com
Old Strike Rates
Player 1: 68.85
Player 2: 69.31
Player 3: 69.60
Player 4: 72.93
Player 5: 74.15
Player 6: 74.94
Player 7: 74.60
Player 8: 73.93
Player 9: 69.56
Player 10: 63.77
Player 11: 50.32
Since we are assuming that it is still a 50-over a side game, the number of balls for each side would be the same. The probability of a team getting all-out would be significantly lower and a competition for the same number of balls would arise. Therefore, there would be more players vying for the same number of balls and therefore, individual strike rates would rise. The new strike rates would follow the previous pattern, except that now, there are 15 players instead of the previous 11. And yes, the strike rates would spike towards Player 7 now, instead of Player 6.
Remember, more the number of players in a team, more the number of lesser quality players playing the game.
New Strike Rates
Player 1: 73.85
Player 2: 74.31
Player 3: 75.60
Player 4: 78.93
Player 5: 81.15
Player 6: 82.84
Player 7: 83.60
Player 8: 81.93
Player 9: 79.56
Player 10: 77.56
Player 11: 75.56
Player 12: 73.56
Player 13: 70.56
Player 14: 63.77
Player 15: 50.32
All right. Now, how do we convert strike rates into runs? By multiplying it with the Average Number of Balls faced by each batsman. Again, we extrapolate the data available for 15 players using a similar curve for the same function.
Data and Calculation for the Old Format
Data and Calculation for the New Format
Therefore, the new team average turns out to be 232.62.
Result #2
The Average Score of a Team with 15 players rises by 8.944% when the Individual Strike Rates of the Batsmen are considered.
2 comments:
Not clear how the new strike rates are recalculated from the old ones.
[That I am reading this seriously shows how jobless I am, but then that's kind of a given :) :P]
@Mandark: I knew someone would ask this.
I have maintained the curve of the previous strike rates, raised the curve by a few notches for the first few batsmen(5 percentage points), raised the SR for the next few batsmen by even higher(7 percentage points) and dropped the curve towards the last few batsmen to match the data of the original batsmen.
This is because-
1)Players in the beginning can now hit even more
2)Players towards the middle have an extra 4 batsmen after them, so they hit harder
3)Players towards the end have still no-one after them, so they are as inclined to hit as the ones in the previous case.
All this has been done with some speculation and with some extrapolation using data available online.
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